As Bitcoin's momentum lost momentum, its price underwent a downward revision, taking the entire cryptocurrency market with it. Let's analyze together the future prospects for the BTC price.
Status of Bitcoin (BTC)
While Bitcoin was consolidating in the form of an ascending triangle, the price of the parent cryptocurrency rejected the $72,000 zone. Indeed, it is from this level that BTC came under selling pressure, bringing its price at the end of the week slightly below the psychological threshold of $61,000. Note that this level has already served as support in the past. It appears that buying interest has been demonstrated again at this price level. Nevertheless, although it seems to be defended this Tuesday, April 16 in the morning, the short-term structure of the price of Bitcoin remains bearish.
The price of Bitcoin is now forming a double top. In principle, this figure signals a potential reversal, at least in the short term. Nevertheless, the underlying trend of Bitcoin remains bullish, although the return of BTC below its 50-day moving average, associated with a downwardly revised upward dynamic, leaves doubt as to the continuation of the latter.
The current technical analysis was carried out in collaboration with Elie FT, a passionate investor and trader in the cryptocurrency market. Today trainer at Family Tradinga community of thousands of own-account traders active since 2017. You will find Lives, educational content and mutual assistance around the financial markets in a professional and warm atmosphere.
Focus on derivatives (BTCUSDT)
Open interest on BTC/USDT contracts followed its price decline. Indeed, we can note an overpressure of almost $3.3 billion on the open interest of BTCUSDT perpetual contracts. Some contracts fell below $60,000, triggering a significant number of buyer liquidations. Coupled with a falling financing rate, this makes it possible to imagine a capitulation of buyers during these latest fluctuations.
The heat map of liquidations over the past month indicates that BTC/USDT crossed a significant liquidation zone, between $64,000 and $62,000. It seems that buying interest has established itself at this level, suggesting a period of reversal. Now, the nearest and most significant liquidation zone is above the current price, precisely around $72,000. Higher up, we can also note areas around $73,000 to $74,000. To determine the one located below, it will be necessary to explore deeper to identify the subtle zone around $58,000. If the market approaches these levels, we could see a massive triggering of orders, potentially increasing the volatility of the cryptocurrency. These areas therefore represent a major point of interest for investors.
Hypotheses for the price of Bitcoin (BTC)
- If the price of Bitcoin manages to stay above $60,000, we could anticipate a bullish continuation up to the $67,000 level. The next resistance to take into account, if the upward movement continues, would be 68,000 or even 69,000 and above. At this stage, this would represent an increase of more than 8.5%.
- If the price of Bitcoin fails to maintain above $60,000, we could envisage support for buying interest around $58,000. The next level to consider, if the bearish movement continues, would be within a price range around $57,000 and $56,000. At this stage, this would represent a drop close to – 11%.
Conclusion
One week before the Halving, Bitcoin came under selling pressure causing its price to decline. This can partly be explained by a complicated fundamental context on the macroeconomic and geopolitical side. Although the BTC market is showing some resilience, indicating continued buyer interest, the parent cryptocurrency is oscillating between short-term bearish signals and a general uptrend. Thus, it will be crucial to carefully observe the price reaction at different key levels to confirm or refute the current hypotheses. It is also important to remain vigilant against potential market “fake outs” and “squeezes” in each scenario. Finally, let us remember that these analyzes are based solely on technical criteria and that the price of cryptocurrencies can also evolve quickly depending on other more fundamental factors.
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Family Trading is a Community of own-account traders active since 2017 offering Lives, educational content and mutual assistance around the financial markets including that of cryptocurrencies with Elie FT, a passionate investor and trader on the crypto market.
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