The fourth bitcoin halving did indeed take place on April 20, 2024, leaving the entire market on speculation announcing the crypto bull run 2024. While analysts weigh in on the subject, one main question remains: at what When will this bull-run take hold? Discover our complete analysis on this issue.
A look back at the bullish cycles recorded after the first three bitcoin halvings
In reality, the bullish discourse associated with the post-halving period did not arise accidentally. Historically, the bitcoin halving has always been a catalyst, pushing the cryptocurrency to new all-time highs.
Source: bitcoinblockhalf.com/tradingview
One year after the halving of 2012BTC had gained more than 6,033% exchanging at the level of $1,150 against $12 before the event. The same scenario was repeated over the same time interval after the halving of 2016, with a peak of $20,000 at the end of the cycle.
This then represented an increase of more than 328% compared to its value at halving. The third halving confirmed theories relating to a post-halving bullish cycle in 2020, when the price of the token created by Satoshi Nakamoto skyrocketed dramatically.
In the space of a year, it had indeed climbed by more than 508%setting his previous ATH of $69,000. By considering these different events and their impact on bitcoin, we better understand the enthusiasm displayed by investors a few months before this fourth halving takes place.
Generally, analysts associate the increases observed after this event with the strong demand recorded in the cryptocurrency market. From a technical point of view, halving halves miners' income, tending to make the supply of the token lower than demand.
However, it seems that the situation has changed this time, especially with the latest movements made by BTC in recent months.
The new realities of the cryptocurrency market and its impact on bitcoin
As the halving loomed, bitcoin did not really behave like it had during the last halvings. Particularly boosted by the record flow of spot bitcoin ETF launched last January, the cryptocurrency finally regained its 2021 ATH before establishing another at the height of $73,700.
Source : Trading View
Thus, unlike the first three halvings in its history, this is the first time that the token achieved a new price record before the halving. This drew the attention of analysts to the impact that these new financial products could have on the price of the token in the long term.
Inspired by the stories of the last halvings, certain speculators have approached the theory of a bull-run before time. Although it is still difficult to project in this direction, it should be noted that the bitcoin market is experiencing new realities.
In addition to its institutionalization, it should be noted that the discourse relating to the strong demand recorded after the halving has evolved somewhat. This is because whales are accumulating more and more BTC.
According to a report from CryptoQuant, demand from investors holding between 1000 and 10,000 BTC reached growth of 11% from one month to the next. Still according to this source, whales accumulate up to 200,000 BTC per month.
Source : Cointelegraph/CryptoQuant
An estimate which is much more important than the 28,000 BTC issued monthly before this fourth halving and 14,000 BTC which will now be issued. In other words, the activity of whales incorporates certain changes in the BTC market, as demand is greater today.
What next for the speculations announcing a crypto bull run 2024?
Between the rapid explosion and drastic price drop, the cryptocurrency market has always been unpredictable. This is even more important today with the new realities that characterize it, notably the institutionalization of the sector and the increasingly important influence of whales.
Despite everything, it must be recognized that the halving remains a major event for the crypto market in general, and that of bitcoin in particular. Many investors and players in the cryptocurrency sector are still banking on it.
Most even expect BTC to reach the milestone for the first time $100,000. An optimism shared by Michael Saylorthe boss of Microstrategywhich announces good things for the token until the horizon 2025.
🔥Michael Saylor when #Bitcoin hits 100K after Bitcoin Halving.👀 pic.twitter.com/SfTSE1jUh5
— The Crypto Times (@CryptoTimes_io) April 12, 2024
However, opinions remain mixed, particularly among CryptoQuant analysts who maintain that “the effect of halving has diminished” Today.
Either way, the next few months will likely be decisive for bitcoin. It remains to be seen whether it will actually explode, in order to push the entire market towards a generalized bull run.
Meanwhile, investors seeking alpha are investing in explosive crypto nuggets as 99Bitcoins (99BTC) which has a low market capitalization. The token is in pre-sale and the first investors can already get started.
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