From key economic indicators to major regulatory decisions, here's a look at what crypto market experts expect this month.
Macroeconomic factors: the US Federal Reserve meeting
The meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve, which will take place this Wednesday, May 1, is one of the most anticipated events of the month. Despite concerns about continued inflation, the Fed will likely keep the borrowing rate between 5.25% and 5.5%.
This move could therefore signal a sustained conservative approach amid economic uncertainties, which would impact investor sentiment in the crypto sector.
On May 2, the U.S. Treasury Department is expected to announce its repayment plans for the coming quarter, which could ultimately provide some relief to the markets. Indeed, after three consecutive quarters of increasing the size of auctions, the US Treasury plans to maintain most of them.
Investors are paying close attention to the details of an anticipated debt buyback program and its implications for long-term U.S. financing strategies amid growing debt concerns. Although there may be increases in specific issues like the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), most auctions are expected to remain unchanged, which could influence market liquidity and bond rates. 'interest.
Another notable event of the month is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for April, which will be released on May 15. Given that housing costs contributed to more than half of the 3.5% CPI inflation rate from March 2024, the financial market will be watching this report closely. Indeed, any significant change could influence the Fed's monetary policy, which would ultimately have an impact on the stability of the crypto market.
To know more : Bitcoin Prediction 2024/2025/2030
Spotlight on Hong Kong: Bitcoin Asia Conference
On the global stage, the Bitcoin Asia conference, which will be held in Hong Kong on May 9-10, also stands out as a key event this month. This conference will bring together leading figures from the crypto and traditional finance (TradFi) sectors, including Han Tongli from Harvest Global Investment Limited and Elizabeth Stark from Lightning Labs.
The ideas and developments shared there could influence market trends, especially as Hong Kong has just adopted Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs.
Legal Challenges: The Tornado Cash Trial and Its Implications
The market is also following the legal proceedings initiated against the developer of Tornado Cash, Alexey Pertsev, in the Netherlands, the verdict of which is expected on May 14. Mr. Pertsev is indeed accused of money laundering and prosecutors are recommending a prison sentence of 64 months.
BeInCrypto reported in August 2022 that the Netherlands Crime Agency (FIOD) arrested Pertsev in Amsterdam following the US Treasury's sanctions against Tornado Cash. The IFB accused Persev of sponsoring illicit financial flows, money laundering and for “mixing” cryptocurrencies through its decentralized Ethereum mixer service.
At the same time, other US-based Tornado Cash developers Roman Storm and Roman Semenov have faced multiple charges from the Department of Justice (DOJ). They were notably charged with conspiracy to commit money laundering, operating an unlicensed money transmission service and violating OFAC sanctions.
The crypto community is therefore impatiently awaiting the outcome of this case, fearing that it will establish a precedent threatening privacy-focused software developers within the ecosystem.
To go further: The best alternatives to Tornado Cash
SEC Decisions: The Fate of Ethereum and Bitcoin ETFs
At the end of the month, the crypto community is also awaiting responses from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding filing requests for ETFs on Ethereum. The spotlight is in fact on the requests of the VanEck companies and ARK, with the deadlines for the SEC's decision being set for May 23 and May 24, respectively.
Despite the wait, there is skepticism among industry experts about the SEC's approval. Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck, doubts the one-time approval of the Ethereum ETF.
“The way the legal process happens is the regulators give you feedback on your application. This is what happened for weeks and weeks before Bitcoin ETFs – and right now it’s the same for Ethereum,” van Eck explained earlier in April.
VanEck is not the only one to be pessimistic. Crypto industry analysts like James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas of Bloomberg Intelligence share this same sentiment. Mr. Balchunas himself reduced his chances of approval from 70% to less than 35%.
In addition to Ethereum ETF filings, the SEC also postponed decisions on options trading for spot Bitcoin ETFs. A recent notice indicates that the Commission has set May 29, 2024 as the deadline to approve, disapprove or initiate proceedings to decide on disapproval, thus allowing the New York Stock Exchange to potentially list options on Bitcoin ETFs at cash.
Together, all of these events will have the potential to stabilize or, on the contrary, volatilize the crypto market throughout May 2024. The community therefore remains on alert, prepared to navigate its path following the effects of these imminent events.
Moral of the story: On May 1, rest before the storm.
Disclaimer
Disclaimer: In accordance with The Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to providing unbiased and transparent information. This article aims to provide accurate and relevant information. However, we encourage readers to verify the facts on their own and consult a professional before making any decision based on this content.
