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Although they obviously have certain points in common, the comparison between the yellow metal and the queen of cryptocurrencies is unnecessary, according to Clémentine Cazalets, economist at Monnaie de Paris.
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Gold and bitcoin have been in the news since the start of 2024, reaching historical high points, repeatedly breaking their respective records. Gold benefits from the prospect of falling interest rates, purchases by emerging central banks and above all a very tense geopolitical context which allows it to once again play its role as a safe haven. Bitcoin was supported by the arrival of first index funds (AND F) backed by the latter, thus bringing it closer to other traditional assets (shares, bonds, real estate and raw materials). Many have drawn the parallel with the arrival, 20 years earlier, of the first ETFs backed by gold and some do not hesitate to qualify bitcoin as “digital gold”, attributing to it the same qualities of a safe haven.
The comparison between the bitcoin and gold is not new, and it is true that the cryptoasset borrows a lot from the world of gold metal. If only by its most common representation (a gold coin engraved with the sign ₿) or by its vocabulary (we speak of “mining” bitcoin). It was also designed as a raw material, present in limited quantity: 21 million bitcoins could be issued in total (more than 19 million have already been “mined” nowadays). Gold and bitcoin are thus two assets whose valuation does not depend on their potential return (they do not offer any) but only on expectations of supply and demand. However, with limited supply, and provided that demand persists, prices are naturally driven upwards.
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But the comparison stops there. Because if scarcity is often synonymous with high prices, it is certainly not a sufficient condition to give an asset the quality of a safe haven. Certain metals are rarer than gold, and therefore more expensive (like rhodium), but are not therefore considered stores of value.
The main ingredient for making an asset a reserve value is trust: everyone must believe that this asset will retain its value over time, even in the event of a crisis or profound shock. Gold inspires this confidence thanks to several characteristics that are unique to it. First of all, it is a tangible asset, which allows it to be immune to the risk of bankruptcy but also to the risks of computer hacking for example. Bitcoin is not based on no intrinsic value, whether physical or immaterial. Additionally, gold has strong institutional support: Central Banks around the world use it as a reserve asset, adding to its credibility. In contrast, the value of bitcoin is not guaranteed by any central authority, due to its very nature: an asset designed to operate in a decentralized manner, freeing itself from financial institutions, and regulators at the same time. Finally, gold has been used as a store of value for millennia and across the world: it is this exceptionally long history that inspires confidence and allows it to be recognized as a universal store of value. With 15 years of existencebitcoin can hardly compete.
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Bitcoin, a dematerialized asset whose volatility is particularly high, can only be seen as a instrument of speculation. Like all speculative assets, its potential gain can be assumed to be significant, which explains its success with the least risk-averse investors. On the other hand, the risk of loss is just as high. Bitcoin, and cryptoassets in general, conceived as digital commodities, seem to be carving out a place in the landscape of financial assets; but they are still far from being able to dethrone gold as a safe haven par excellence.
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